Question:
Would the world have been better off if World War I ended in a negotiated peace instead of an Allied victory?
Brad
2010-08-10 10:19:08 UTC
That would have been the likely result had the United States stayed out of the war, as WWI was a stalemate for a few years prior to American entry into that war. At some point, the European powers would have had to agree to a negotiated peace, possibly a status quo antebellum peace. With a negotiated peace, Central Europe would not have been destabilized, which paved the way for the rise of Hitler. Since the Allies would not have won the war, they would not be able to break their agreement with Italy, which might have prevented the rise to power of Mussolini. If America had stayed out of the war, a desperate Germany might have decided not to send Lenin into Russia in an attempt to win the war before American troops could arrive. Without Lenin, Russia probably might have developed into a democracy, which certainly would have been better than a Communist dictatorship. The disastrous result of World War I for France would have probably greatly reduced the strength of revanchism (the militarist movement in France that wanted a war to reclaim Alsace-Lorraine from Germany). Likewise, might the disaster that resulted from an act of Serbian terrorism have discouraged future acts of terrorism against the Austrian Empire? With a negotiated peace, might the Ottoman Empire have continued to exist in the Middle East and might that have led to less violence in the Middle East?
Five answers:
Moriarty
2010-08-10 11:03:41 UTC
Quite probably.



Many political figures in Britain were wary of US entry into the War. There had been tentative approaches to peace in early 1917 by the Central Powers since Germany had started to internally crumble, both economically and politically, due to the Royal Navy blockade of it's ports; and Britain had been willing to listen and keep France on a leash. But once the US threw it's weight into the fray behind the Allies in an effort to gain greater influence in post-war Europe, France (after being invaded twice in forty years by Germanic troops) wanted nothing more than to crush and humiliate Germany; from which we get the final Treaty of Versailles that was to store up so much trouble for the future.

One of those politicians who opposed US involvement was Winston Churchill, who made no secret of his displeasure in a 1936 interview in the New York Enquirer -



"America should have minded her own business and stayed out of the World War. If you hadn't entered the war the Allies would have made peace with Germany in the Spring of 1917. Had we made peace then there would have been no collapse in Russia followed by Communism, no breakdown in Italy followed by Fascism, and Germany would not have signed the Versailles Treaty, which has enthroned Nazism in Germany. If America had stayed out of the war, all these 'isms' wouldn't today be sweeping the continent of Europe and breaking down parliamentary government - and if England had made peace early in 1917, it would have saved over one million British, French, American, and other lives."
the c
2010-08-11 16:50:12 UTC
People need to educate themselves, WW2 was not a consequence of Versailles, but a consequence of a long held German desire to dominate Europe, the same as the cause of WW1. Many many Germans supported the thought that Germany should expand it's European and World empire to control more territory, they saw it as their right as they had such a large economy and large military.



If we compare Versailles with Brest-litovsk a treaty between the Germans and Soviets in 1918 then we see what a harsh treaty looks like. If we look at the way the Germans were dealt with in 1945 then we see a harsh settlement. Yet Germany has not tried to overturn this last one to return to their previous borders, why because they knew they had been beaten, their shattered cities and enemy occupation confirmed this to them killing German militarism. The trouble with Versailles was that it was a compromise, neither harsh enough or gentle enough to build peace (the latter being very unlikely considering the cost of defeating Germany). Also the issue of reparations is not as big as it seems, the first time reparations were included in a treaty between the newly formed German Empire and third French republic at the end of the Franco-Prussian war of 1872. Reparations were a German Idea so what right have they to feel quite so hard done by when they are used against them?



France would never have accepted peace without a return of Alsace and Loraine, Britain would not have accepted anything less than the surrender of the German fleet. The trouble was all the countries had their own objectives and these differences meant each of the victors were not happy with the treaty as they felt others had put things in there they didn't want.



Even if the US had not got involved in WW1 I think the allies could have won, US man power was in fact of very limited use in obtaining the victory in 1918. With the collapse of Russia the Germans would almost have certainly tried an offensive in the west in 1918, maybe not with the same desperation that they did however. Once this had been beaten, and it would have been beaten, the allies would have counter attacked. In these circumstances the allies would have still been able to drive the exhausted German's back, though it may have been slower and taken more lives (if the Germans had not lost as many in their spring offensives). By 1918 Germany's economy was in tatters and not able to support the war effort as effectively as the allies, aided by America's productive capacity whether they were involved or not. So Germany would have lost, just maybe not as quickly.



Your premise about Russia is flawed, the Germans would have used Lenin to destabilize the Russians regardless of US involvement. And Russia was and is it seems destined to remain under the hands of absolutists and dictators, it seems to work for the Russian psyche.



The only things that could have stopped WW2 would have been these. No depression, without this Hitler would never have come to power as he couldn't get enough support. A proper imposition of the terms of Versailles, had Britain, France and the US actually agreed on Versailles and decided to enforce it's parts together then Germany would not have been able to get in the position she was in 1939, however the political will was not there from the start as many felt the treaty didn't suit their needs. The final reason WW2 could have been avoided would have been if the war had gone on into 1919, Germans did not see quite how badly beaten their army was in 1918 and this lead to the thought that they did not actually loose the war.
Naz F
2010-08-10 17:55:52 UTC
Sorry to burst your bubble, but wasn't a 'negotiated peace' what actually happened? Germany decided to pull out of the war, because she saw that she had no hope to win, after what happened at the Battle of Vittorio Veneto...In this battle in northern Italy, (Oct. 24 to Nov.3, 1918) Austria-Hungary lost so badly that it ceased to exist; breaking up within a few days into its constituent parts. The Ottoman Empire had also ceased to exist by this time, as most of the Ottoman's posessions in Arabia were lost during the war; becoming independent nations. It was therefore impossible to return to the 'status quo antebellum', as this would involve - not returning captured territory - but giving newly-independent nations back to their former rulers.



Germany therefore decided to negotiate a peace with the Allies, lest she be conquered and had to settle for worse. BTW, Auistria and Turkey signed separate agreements instead; the treaty of St. Germaine and the treaty of Sevres.



Source: General Ludendorff wrote:In Vittorio Veneto, Austria did not lose a battle, but lose the war and itself, dragging Germany in its fall. Without the destructive battle of Vittorio Veneto, we would have been able, in a military union with the Austro-Hungarian monarchy, to continue the desperate resistance through the whole winter, in order to obtain a less harsh peace, because the Allies were very fatigued." Pasoletti, Ciro: A Military History of Italy. Greenwood Publishing Group, 2008, page 150. ISBN 0275985059 (This is from a footnote in the Wiki site about the Battle of Vittoria Veneto.)
Darc
2010-08-10 19:44:26 UTC
kind of, maybe if the Treaty of Versailles had would not have been so harsh on Germany, World War II would never have occurred. Germany surrendered in WWI, and that led to Hitler and all his hatred toward Untermenchen, and using the people's emotions, he rose to power and tried to restore Germany to the glory of the Empires before her, namely the Roman Empire. The peace that was agreed upon in WWI basically blamed Germany for everything.
Joseph
2010-08-16 18:02:15 UTC
Yes, and Germany asked for a negotiated peace before the Americans joined up with their men and equipment but the French commander of all forces, who lost his son and son n law, said no to any terms other than unconditional surrender.


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